US truckload pricing remains in an unsettled state despite a significant surge in spot market rates last December. Currently, contract shippers have not experienced the impact of these higher costs. Their existing agreements largely shield them from immediate market volatility.
However, this situation is not expected to last indefinitely. Amid prevailing market uncertainty, contract shippers could begin to feel these rate increases as 2026 commences. This shift marks a crucial point for the freight industry.
Spot Market vs. Contract Rates
A clear discrepancy defines the current US truckload market. Spot rates saw a sharp increase in December, creating a “red-hot” environment for immediate freight. In contrast, contract rates for ongoing shipping agreements have remained stable, insulating many shippers from the recent surge.
This division highlights a lag. While carriers on the spot market capitalized on higher demand, companies with long-term contracts continued operating under previous terms. This insulation, however, offers only temporary relief.
The Impending Shift for 2026
The stability contract shippers currently enjoy is poised for change. Industry experts anticipate that the market’s unsettled nature will soon translate into new contract negotiations. As 2026 approaches, these shippers will likely face adjustments reflecting the higher costs observed in the spot market.
US truckload spot rates surged in December, but contract shippers are currently shielded by existing agreements. This stability is temporary; market uncertainty suggests contract rates will likely increase for these shippers starting in 2026, reflecting the higher costs seen in the spot market.
Anticipating Rate Adjustments
The year 2026 is a critical juncture. The commencement of this year is specifically identified as the period when the impact on contract shippers is expected to materialize. This timeline suggests a coming alignment between spot market movements and long-term agreements.
Market Uncertainty as a Key Driver
A pervasive sense of market uncertainty underlies the entire situation. This unpredictability is the primary catalyst for the anticipated rate adjustments. The unsettled market environment makes current long-term pricing unsustainable when spot costs fluctuate significantly.